The three countries of the crude oil market in Russia, Russia and the United States are killing!After the price drops 30%, the domestic refined oil returns to 5 yuan?

“Busy crazy!!”A senior analyst told reporters.This morning (March 9), futures are in one of the most intense sell-offs ever.Brent crude oil plunged 31% at the opening this morning, and then narrowed down more than 20%, reaching a minimum of 31.02 US dollars / barrel, the largest decline since the United States launched the war in Iraq in January 1991.On one trading day of the Air Force, Brent crude oil has plummeted by 10%.At the same time, the Kuwaiti stock market suspended trading, the index fell 10%, and the Saudi stock market fell more than 8%.On Friday, OPEC and Russia talked about collapse, unable to reach an agreement to further reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day.Last Saturday, Saudi Arabia cut prices and increased production to launch a “full-scale oil price war.”Will the United States pull?Will oil prices remain low?Will the domestic refined oil be worth 5 yuan?Sauna and Yewang interviewed Jia Ruibin, director of Tianfeng Futures Research Institute, Zhong Jian, chief chief of Jinlianchuang Petroleum, and Qu Xinrong, senior research director of Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center.Sauna Night: What is the reason for the international oil price plunge?Demand collapse, price bubble production cuts conflicts within the agreementOther countries even choose to increase production to protect their fiscal revenue.This means that the collapse of demand in the crude oil market and the double-kill situation of increased supply have led to a rare drop in international crude oil prices.Zhong Jian: The reason for the current plunge is the failure to cut production and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts after the meeting.This further shows that the price bubble caused by panic in the oil price has reached the moment of extreme inflation.However, this also means that it will be the moment when the bubble is about to burst, and the eve of the turnaround in the crash.Sauna Night Net: The game is concentrated in Saudi Arabia and Russia. How will the cards be played?The door to negotiations on production cuts is still open. Russia and Saudi Arabia need to bargain. Jia Ruibin: To the oil-producing countries, it may not be possible to solve the problem even if they want to reduce production.In general, Saudi Arabia has the lowest cost, followed by Iran and other countries, Russia is in the middle, and shale oil costs are higher.From the perspective of overall prices, shale oil is already at a significantly higher level, and countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are required to jointly reduce production to boost prices. However, for countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, their massive production cuts will obviously lose revenue, but the beneficiariesIt is Russia, the United States and other countries, so this is not a wise choice.Xinrong: The game of oil prices is mainly concentrated between Saudi Arabia and Russia.In fact, since the reduction of production in December 2018, Saudi Arabia has assumed the majority of the production reduction share, and Saudi Arabia has lost a considerable part of the market. Then, Saudi Arabia ‘s appeal is mainly that Saudi Aramco can be stable and oil prices remain at a certain level.Russia is also a crude oil exporter. If it does not reduce production, Saudi Arabia cannot reduce its own output.So the reason why Russia is doing this may be to ask Saudi Arabia for more political chips.In fact, Russia has been considering the issue of production cuts, and has made preparations for oil prices to move towards $ 42 per barrel.But Russia is also concerned that the joint reduction in production with Saudi Arabia will allow the United States to take the biggest advantage.Zhong Jian: For Saudi Arabia, before the completion of overseas stock listings, Saudi Arabia ‘s move towards OPEC alliance will continue to reduce production, and strive to maintain oil prices above 60 US dollars / barrel.During this period, the OPEC alliance still needs to exist; the political landscape obtained by Saudi Arabia through the alliance also needs to be exchanged for more contributions; to maintain the cooperation relationship of the OPEC production reduction alliance without breaking down, it is necessary to continue to tolerate Russia.Therefore, the door to negotiations on production cuts still needs to be open, there is a market satisfaction, and the formation of internally understood production cut plans is a high probability event.For Russia, not completely refusing to reduce production before the meeting, but only conditionally reducing production.From the reports gradually revealed by foreign media, due to some temporary changes during the meeting, the differences between OPEC and Russia have expanded.It can be seen from this that Russia does not refuse to cut production in principle, but is very “fighting” in the meeting.As long as it is not a matter of principle, other issues can be understood and understood, and there is room for resolution.Sauna Nights: US shale oil continues to suppress the price of crude oil worldwide. Will this price war take action?The dilemma: low oil prices are good for US monetary policy but hit the US shale oil market. Qu Xinrong: From a political point of view, the United States is happy to see its success.Low oil prices will lead to lower inflation, the Fed will have a certain monetary space, and as a crude oil consumer, the cost will be reduced.But the pressure on the shale oil industry in the United States is greater, because the cost of shale oil is between 40 and 50 dollars per barrel, then crude oil is at such a low price, and the market share and production of shale oil in the United States will be faster.Down.In fact, in 2015, Saudi Arabia implemented the strategy of using low oil prices to strike US shale oil, but it was unsuccessful, and it also led to the market share being divided by the United States.This time Saudi Arabia also used the same method to attack the shale oil market in the United States.Zhong Jian: The extreme price of more than 30 dollars is unbearable for all oil-producing countries, and it is also unacceptable for Wall Street’s financial capital, and it is indispensable for the benefit of the election.Affected by the plunge in oil prices, the global capital market also fell sharply, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the early stage, and the monetary easing policy collapsed overnight.The U.S. stock market is recognized as the largest piece of cheese for re-election, and it is possible that it will soon shoot Saudi Arabia.Sauna Night: Is the drop in oil prices temporary or trending?Different from the fundamentals of the relative plunge, oil prices may rebound in the second and third quarters. Jia Ruibin: In the medium term, the epidemic will eventually pass, and demand will gradually recover sooner or later, so the decline in oil prices is also temporary or excessively panic.Xinrong: The price will fluctuate and fall, but it is still short-term and will not be trendy.Because of low oil prices, neither Saudi Arabia nor Russia can stand it, and US shale oil production will also decline. Therefore, transmission demand may resume in the 2-3 quarter, and oil prices will start to rebound.Zhong Jian: This kind of extreme price decline (only $ 15 in two days) has a serious lack of fundamental support.This is different from the collapse of the oil price in 2018 that was caused by the outbreak of the US financial crisis and the serious liquidity of capital in the capital market. It is also different from the fall of the oil price in the second half of 2014.During this period, various financial capitals were forced to withdraw from the market including oil futures.Almost all of this plunge was caused by the panic caused by the failure to cut production and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts and preparations for heavy volume.Sauna Night: Is it a good thing for China, or a double-edged sword?Double-edged sword: Lowering the cost of imports will also cause some upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to reduce. Jia Ruibin: China’s large amount of crude oil depends on imports, and the international oil price has dropped, which has reduced the cost of crude oil imports.However, after the price of crude oil falls, it will lead to a simultaneous decline in the prices of commodities in the energy and chemical industry chains, and will lead to substantial substitutions in some upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain.If crude oil prices remain low for a long time, it will obviously have a distorting impact on China’s petrochemical industry.Therefore, the rapid decline in energy prices is a double-edged sword for China.Considering that crude oil prices will not remain at a low level for a long time, we recommend that the government appropriately increase crude oil reserves in the relative position of prices. These parts of production temporarily have difficulties in replacing subsidies or technical support for production enterprises to maintain the relative stability of the overall industry.Xinrong: For China, it is definitely a good thing.China is the largest crude oil importer, with a 70% dependence on crude oil and a 45% dependence on natural gas. The reduction in crude oil and natural gas prices is definitely helpful to China’s cost control.Sauna Night Net: What effect does it have on domestic refined oil prices?The profit spread of oil refining companies that may reappear in the 5 yuan era may continue to widen Jia Ruibin: The price adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices opens a week later, coincided with the sharp decline in crude oil in the cycle of more than 20%, and the price of refined oil is also expectedThere will certainly be a significant drop.The price reduction is expected to exceed 500 yuan.If the market is fierce, the 5 yuan era is also possible to reproduce.Xinrong: As far as refined oil prices are concerned, according to the price adjustment regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, when the price of international crude oil is below US $ 40 per barrel, the price of refined oil will no longer be reduced with the price of international crude oil.This is equivalent to a low price for refined oil. For an oil refining enterprise, the profit spread will widen, which is also good for oil refining enterprises.If the oil price does not rebound, the next time the price adjustment enters the 5 yuan era is not a problem.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Shuxin Editor Yue Caizhou Li Weijia Proofreading Liu Jun

[How long to eat mulberry cream UFA]_Function_Hair becomes black

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[Efficacy of Banana Milk Drinking at Night]_Night_Effect

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[How long can glutinous rice be soaked in rice dumplings]_Zongzi_ 江米 _How to brew

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[How to cook red beans to be sticky?】 _How to cook_How to cook

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[Do women still have sexual desire after menopause]_menopause_female_sex life

[Do women still have sexual desire after menopause]_menopause_female_sex life

Generally, women’s sexual desire will gradually decline during the menopause phase. It may even be that at this stage, hormones stimulate the body itself, resulting in our body’s desire is not very strong, this situation is because of some of the badCaused by habit, so everyone should be vigilant in general. Generally, sexual desire will decrease after menopause, but it must be different from person to person.

The occurrence of sexual desire is related to the physiological basis of both sexes: one is the sexual endocrine system composed of sex hormones and gonads, which maintains the basic tension and excitability of sexual libido; the other is the cerebral cortex, spinal hypoexcitation center and sex areaAnd to ensure the nervous system of the nervous system.
They ensure the body’s ability to respond to the environment in a timely and effective manner.

Generally scientists believe that sexual desire is an instinctive desire for sustainable reproduction.

However, in general, most animals’ sexual desire only exists during estrus, and the estrus of animals usually has a certain period (like spring).

For humans, there is no concept of estrus, or humans can estrus at any time.

Failure to learn to control one’s sexuality can lead to sexual crimes.

It is normal for a single person to satisfy his sexual desire through masturbation.

People all over the world do this, and it’s safe.

For men, it can prevent prostatitis and prostate cancer.

Both men and women can learn about their bodies through masturbation, which is good for future sex life.

If you must stage, you will have stronger sexual desire in the morning, which is why in the morning, the genitals of young healthy men will naturally erect.

With the increase of age, the chance of Chen Bo will gradually decrease. It is normal and there is no need to worry about it.

From a physiological point of view, after menopause, the ovaries no longer secrete estrogen or ovulate, and their fertility is lost.

At the same time, the reproductive organs have also undergone degenerative changes, and the speed and intensity of the various stages of the sexual response cycle have also significantly decreased. This is the fact.

But we can not help but see the other side of the formation of sexual desire, that is, in addition to the above-mentioned physiological factors, sexual desire is also affected by cultural ideas, psychological and environmental factors.

After women reach menopause, because their lives are stable, their children have grown up in employment, their husbands and wives have sound relationships, and they no longer need to worry about pregnancy. This eliminates the sexual depression previously caused by the above factors, but enhances sexual desire.These examples are often seen.

Therefore, it is wrong to think that sexual desire will be lost after menopause.

In fact, for an elderly who is in good health, aging does not mean the inevitable loss of appetite and the loss of orgasm.

[How to kill seafood parasites]_Parasites_Killing method

The problem is that the chain of disease is very complicated, and the chain of disease is very difficult to deal with, and it’s very difficult to make a difference.斁鍦ㄦ贰姘撮噷闈㈡挄鍜紝鎵€浠ヨ韩浣撳綋涓彲鑳戒篃浼氭劅鏌擄紝娴烽矞鍦ㄥ悆鐨勬椂鍊欏敖閲忚娉ㄦ剰锛屽鏋滀笉鏄繚璇佷粠娣辨捣涓崟鎹炵殑锛屽彲浠ョ敤楂樻俯鍔犲伐鍚庡悆锛屽洜涓虹粡杩囦簡楂樻俯鐨勭児楗拰鍐峰喕鐨勫鐞嗕箣鍚庢捣椴滀腑鐨勫瘎鐢熻櫕浼氳鏉€姝绘帀銆傛捣椴滄按浜ф潵婧愭帶鍒跺畨鍏ㄥ湪閫夎喘涓婇€夊彇鐢熼暱浜庡闃旀捣娲嬫垨姘磋川缁忕鎺х殑鍏绘畺鍦恒€傝繘璐洃绠℃竻鏅帮紝鏉ユ簮鏄庣‘锛屾按璐ㄦ湁淇濊瘉锛屽喎閾炬妧鏈湁淇濋殰鐨勬按浜у搧銆傚緢澶氫汉瀹gО閲庣敓姘翠骇鏇村姞瀹夊叏锛屽疄闄呬笂锛岃繖骞朵笉涓€瀹氥€傜敱浜庝笉娓呮閲庣敓鐜鐨勬薄鏌撴按骞筹紝杩欎簺鍦版柟鐨勬按浜у線寰€鏈夋洿楂樼殑瀹夊叏椋庨櫓锛屾墍浠ワ紝璋ㄦ厧閫夎喘浠讳綍鏉ュ巻涓嶆槑鐨勯噹鐢熸捣椴滄按浜с€傞珮娓╃児璋冩垨鍐峰喕澶勭悊瀵逛粯娴烽矞瀵勭敓铏紝鍘熷垯寰堢畝鍗曘€備互60鈩冧互涓婄殑娓╁害鐑圭叜锛屾垨浠ュ喎鍐诲鐞嗐€傦紙缇庡浗椋熷搧鑽搧绠$悊灞€锛團DA锛夎簹 擶 奔 逊 夊 礤 氪 湪 -35 雩 冨 华 鍐?5涓皬鏃讹紝鎴栨槸 -20鈩冨喎鍐伙紬澶╁悗鎵嶈兘椋熺敤锛岃€屾鐩熺殑鏍囧噯鍒欐槸鍦?20 器 喨 喎 閐 撩 撩?4 Hao Yi Lu Mogujituan  Pijuanyangjing Wanfengmiangeng Bianlubenwu Qintuan  Jiao Qiejufujuan Yan rupture threshold boom Cun Baxiaocunba yu Xin Shuhuichenuu Xicuanfeiche Jixianfengjue杩欐牱澶勭悊锛岃繙绂诲瘎鐢熻櫕锛佽€屾皯闂寸洓浼犵殑”鑺ユ湯銆侀叡娌广€侀唻绛夎皟鏂欏拰鐧介厭”锛岄兘鏃犳硶鏈夋晥鏉€姝诲瘎鐢熻櫕銆傚皯鍚冩垨鑰呬笉鍚冨唴鑴忕瓑鍣ㄥ畼澶ч噺鐮旂┒鏄剧ず锛屽湪鍙屽3绫汇€佽吂瓒崇被绛夋捣浜у搧涓紝鑲岃倝涓噸閲戝睘鍚噺寰€寰€鏈€浣庯紝鑰屾秷鍖栫郴缁熴€佺敓娈栫郴缁熺瓑鍐呰剰鍣ㄥ畼涓紝閲嶉噾灞炵殑鍚噺寰€寰€鏇撮珮銆傚鏋滃枩娆㈠悆娴烽矞锛屽敖閲忓悆鍛抽亾鏇撮矞缇庣殑鑲岃倝锛屽皯鍚冨悇绉嶅唴鑴忋€傚帹甯堝湪鐑归オ鏃讹紝鍙互灏介噺鍓旈櫎鍐呰剰閮ㄤ綅銆傚浜庝竴浜涢渶瑕佷繚瀛樺畬鏁存€х殑娴烽矞锛屽彲浠ョ粰椋熷浠彁渚涚浉搴旂殑鍚冩硶鎸囩ず鐗屻€傝瀮锜逛笉鑳藉悆鐨勯儴浣嶆捣椴滆繖鏍峰鐞嗭紝杩滅瀵勭敓铏紒锜瑰績–锻Stubborn stubble  褰  纴 鍦 〨 璮 駜 閂 簂 簦 铦 鑹 鑹 韹 鏺 揺 斑 嬑 嬰 嬰 嬰 寰 鍰 鍰 悰 啰 湰 尰 尰 駰 尰 尰鏋佸瘨涔嬬墿锛屾渶濂戒笉鍚冦€傝煿鑵?-鍦ㄨ瀮锜瑰3鍐呭儚涓ゆ帓灏忕埅瀛愶紝鏄瀮锜圭殑鍛煎惛绯荤粺锛屽缓璁笉瑕侀鐢ㄣ€傝煿鑳?-Don’t worry, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it, you can’t do it冦€傝煿鑲?-锜硅偁鍦ㄨ煿瀛愯吂閮ㄧ殑涓夎褰㈠唴锛屾幇寮€鍚庡彲浠ョ湅鍒颁竴鏉¢粦绾匡紝鍚冪殑鏃跺€欒鍘婚櫎What are you talking about? What are you talking about? What are you doing? What are you looking at?-閲岄潰鍚湁鏈夋瘨鏈夊鐗╄川锛岀壒鍒槸閲嶉噾灞炵殑娈嬬暀鐗┿€傝櫨绾?-鏄櫨鐨勬秷鍖栭亾锛屼竴鑸负榛戣壊鐨勮緝澶氾紝鍚冪殑鏃跺€欐渶濂藉墧闄ゃ€傛墖璐濅笉鑳藉悆鐨勯儴The peaks and the peaks are very high, and the peaks and peaks are out of the way, and they are all broken down-the stacking of gallium and the stacking of the gallium, and the split is divided, and the chain is up and down.鍚冪殑璇濓紝瑕佹礂鍑€鐓啛鍚冦€傚唴鑴?- Zhenkuihuaifei Danxianghuancao Yiwanjisheng Benyuexinwei (ii) Chi-wan, crucible  Ziwubiguan?-The children’s stubble and the gallium stacking stacks are available in the following areas: the media is available in the middle of the world, and it’s not easy to find out what is happening in the sky紒鍐呰剰–椴嶉奔鑲夋梺杈圭豢鑹茬殑涓滆タ灏辨槸鍐呰剰锛岄€氬父閲岄潰鍏锋湁姣掔礌锛屽鏄撳紩璧风毊鐐庣瓑杩囨晱鍙嶅簲娴疯櫣涓嶈兘鍚冪殑閮ㄤ綅娴烽矞杩欐牱澶勭悊锛岃繙绂诲瘎鐢熻櫕锛侀粦鑹茬诞鐘剁墿锛屼笉鏄撴秷鍖栨捣鑲犱笉鑳藉悆鐨勯儴浣嶆捣椴滆繖鏍峰鐞嗭紝杩滅瀵勭敓铏紒娴疯偁涓ょ鐨勬瘺鍒哄拰鑲氶噷鐨勫唴鑴忛兘鏄笉鑳介鐢ㄧ殑锛屽彧鑳藉悆娴疯偁鐨勮偁浣撴湰韬€傜墶铔庝笉椴滆借悆镄勯儴浣嶆捣椴 湆 Umbrella peaks,  鐭 嗭 溴 杩 滩 枇 勭 擓 铏  紒 Di weakly 咫 唴 哴 四 哛 咉 圉 餉 悆 悆 電 電 鬆鬆 铆 鬆鬆It ‘s hard to get rid of it, and it ‘s ridiculous. It ‘s crazy. It ‘s crazy. It ‘s crazy.镙The wind and the wind: the wind and the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind, the wind,鐗╀腑姣掋€傛捣铻哄熬閲岄潰鍚湁鎺掓硠鐗╋紝钘忔湁澶ч噺缁嗚弻銆?

Depth-Company-Zhaoyan New Drug (603127): New incentive schemes expand in scope and performance continues to grow rapidly

In-depth * Company * Zhaoyan New Drug (603127): New incentive scheme expands scope and promotes sustained high growth

The company announced the stock budget and budget stock incentive plan, and plans to grant 124 to 238 core technical backbones.

90,000 stock budgets, exercise price of 48.

11 yuan / share; awarded 450,000 shares of stock to 82 executives and core technical backbones at a grant price of 24.

06 yuan / share.

The performance 北京夜生活网 appraisal target is based on 2018 revenue, and the revenue growth rates for 2019-2021 are 30%, 69%, and 119, respectively.

7%, with an estimated total amortization cost of 1,595.

RMB 110,000, amortized 371 from 2019-2022.

430,000 yuan, 863.

960,000 yuan, 281.

370,000 yuan, 78.

350,000 yuan.

The incentive plan mobilized the enthusiasm of the benchmark and core technology backbones. The company had sufficient orders in hand, new capacity was put into production to solve the capacity problem, and new business expansion was actively promoted. It is expected that the company’s performance will continue to grow steadily and high, and maintain the buy rating.

Key points of support levels The scope of the second round of incentive plans has been expanded to strengthen the income assessment indicators.

The company’s first round of incentive programs awarded a total of 75 to 129 core technology backbones.

50,000 equity, the scope of this incentive plan was expanded to 238 people, and a total of 169 equity was granted.

90,000 copies, the scope of incentives has been expanded, and the enthusiasm of franchisees and technical backbones has been fully mobilized; performance evaluation has strengthened income indicators, based on 2018 revenue, and the revenue growth rate in the next three years will increase by 30%(Early half a year), showing the company’s confidence in maintaining high growth performance.

We believe that the company’s per capita income in 2018 was 50.

40,000 yuan, a record high, the introduction of equity incentives can fully mobilize the enthusiasm of core technology backbones, while the industry maintains a high economic background, per capita income generation will be further improved.

The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the new business expansion has progressed smoothly.

The area of Zhaoyan’s newly-built animal house of about 13,000 square meters has been officially put into use in the second half of 2019. The area of Suzhou Zhaoyan’s animal house has increased by nearly 100%, greatly improving service throughput and capacity.

The company has ample orders in hand. It is estimated that there are currently more than 900 million orders in hand, production capacity has decreased, and performance is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

While stabilizing the market leader in security evaluation, the company is actively expanding new business in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain. In August 2018, the company successively set up subsidiaries Zhaoyan Mingxun and Zhaoyan Pharmaceutical, which respectively entered the field of pharmacovigilance services and drug clinical trials.The company’s orderly progress in the upstream and downstream layout of the industrial 天津夜网 chain has fostered new profit growth points.

It is estimated that the profit forecast is maintained, and the company is expected to achieve net profit in 2019-2021.

5.7 billion, 2.

16 billion, 2.

$ 8.3 billion, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks faced by the rating were slower than expected; the profitability of new investment projects fell short of expectations.

Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (601333): Performance growth in line with expectations Expected collection and storage will significantly improve performance

Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (601333): Performance 杭州夜网 growth in line with expectations Expected collection and storage will significantly improve performance

Investment Highlights Event: Guangshen Railway announced the 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved operating income of 101 in the first half of 2019.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

92%; net profit attributable to mother 7.

62 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

52%; net profit after deduction to mother 7.

5.7 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.


Basic income is 0.

11 yuan, an increase of 22 in ten years.

twenty two%.

The net profit attributable to the mother in the second quarter was 3.

7 ‰, a year-on-year growth of 79%, a substantial increase in growth rate over the first quarter.

Opinion: Adding Chaoshan EMU, passenger revenue will increase in two years1.


In the first half of 2019, the company’s passenger 深圳桑拿网 packages were 4,373.

40,000 people, an increase of 0 in ten years.

28% of which, Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity vehicles sent passengers 2041.

390,000 people, an increase of 7 in ten years.

15%; through trains send passengers 120.

810,000 people, an annual decrease of 38.

99%; long-distance buses send passengers 2211.

190,000 people, a decrease of 2 every year.


Achieve passenger revenue of 40.

76 ppm, an increase of ten years.


Among them, Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity vehicle income was 15.

32 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

62%; through train revenue 1.

69.8 billion, a decrease of 35 previously.

60%; long-distance bus income 20.

870,000 yuan, one year less.

79%; income from other passenger transport2.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.


The increase in passenger revenue is definitely the addition of Chaoshan EMU, and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen intercity passenger revenue has grown significantly.

However, due to the opening of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed railway, the revenue of through-trains decreased significantly. At the same time, due to the diversion effect of the improvement of the domestic high-speed railway network, the company’s long-distance revenue was slightly inclined.

The growth of freight business and entrusted operations was stable.In the first half of 2019, affected by factors such as the steady and rapid growth of the macro economy and the increase in railway freight across the country, the company’s freight volume increased by 781.

82 for the first time, growing by 2 every year.


Total freight revenue is 9.

18 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

04%, of which freight income is 8.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

98%; other income from freight is 1.

14 ‰, a decrease of 0 per year.


In terms of road network settlement, the company’s road network settlement and other transportation services revenue reached 47 in the first half of the year.

4 billion, accounting for 46 of total revenue.

53%, an annual increase of 11.


Revenue from road network clearing services was 20.

53 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

24%; revenue from railway operations and other services was 26.

87 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.


Overall, benefiting from the increase in natural passenger traffic, road network clearing and entrusted operating services revenues have grown steadily.

Total cost increased by 5.

7%, the growth rate is in a reasonable range.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s operating cost was 89.

7.8 billion, an annual increase of 5.


Budgets with a high proportion of costs are wages and equipment rental service charges, of which wages and welfare expenses have increased by 5.

15%, a slight decrease compared to last year; due to the slight increase in passenger and freight traffic, equipment leasing and service fees increased by 3 year-on-year.

3%, other cost items increased slightly, but overall the cost growth rate decreased compared to last year.

It is expected that the asset disposal income of more than 500 million US dollars will be confirmed in 2019, which will greatly increase the company’s performance in one time.

In 2018, the company and the Guangzhou Municipal Government signed a land acquisition and storage agreement for the Guangzhou East Railway Station. The company’s first issuance and storage area was 3.

70,000 square meters, will receive a one-time compensation of 1.3 billion.

The event is expected to increase the company’s net profit by more than 500 million yuan.

The compensation will be received in 6 times, and 4 batches have been received, totaling more than 800 million yuan.

We expect that if it goes well, we will receive full compensation by the end of this year, and after both parties sign the land transfer confirmation letter, we will confirm the asset disposal income.

If the matter is completed by the end of 2019, it will significantly increase the company’s 2019 performance.

Investment strategy: Overall, the company’s business has developed steadily in the first half of the year, and its profits have grown steadily.

In the second half of the year, the reorganized company will provide operating services for the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Shenzhen Intercity Railway, which will further increase the company’s commissioned operating income. The company will most likely recognize land acquisition and storage, asset disposal income, and the company’s performance in 2019 is expected to increase significantly.
We have slightly adjusted our profit forecast for the company and expect that the company will achieve net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021.

3, 10.

2, 11.1 ppm, EPS is 0.

23, 0.

14, 0.

16 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 3 on August 22, 2019.

09 yuan, PE is 13 X, 22X, 19X.

Maintain the level of “prudent overweight”.

Risk reminders: Changes in freight business volume affected by macroeconomics, decline in passenger volume due to high-speed rail diversion, and policy risks such as railway reform.

Midea Group (000333): 2018 annual net profit growth of 17% in line with expectations

Midea Group (000333): 2018 annual net profit growth of 17% in line with expectations
Summary and recommendations: Company performance: The company achieved revenue of 2,618 trillion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of +8.2%, recorded a net profit of 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, net profit after deduction was 201 ppm, an increase of 28 year-on-year.5%, company EPS is 3.08 yuan, the performance is in line with our expectations.The company’s Q4 single quarter revenue reached 544.20,000 yuan, +0 year-on-year.5%, recorded a net profit of 23.300 million, a year-on-year increase of +2.0%, net profit after deduction is 28.100 million, YOY + 70%, the company ‘s Q4 revenue growth rate was mainly due to KUKAQ4’s single-quarter revenue YOY-10%, and Q4 net profit increased slightly, but the non-net profit increased sharply and increased.Value, the restructuring was due to the 2018Q4 investment supplement.The company’s dividend plan is to pay a cash dividend of 13 yuan for every 10 shares (the exchange rate is about 2).4%), the dividend ratio is 42% of net profit. If you consider the repurchase of 4 billion US dollars, the actual dividend ratio is 62%, which is already at a high level for a stock. Home appliance business is stable, KUKA is less than expected: In terms of business: (1) the company’s air-conditioning business achieved revenue of 109.4 billion yuan, YOY + 14.7%, gross margin growth rate increased by 1.6 up to 30.6%; (2) The refrigerator washing machine and small household appliances business achieved a total of 1030 trillion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of +4.3%, the ice washing is stable, the growth rate of small appliances has slowed down, and the gross profit margin has increased by 1.8 up to 29.2%, Toshiba cut 0 on the expense side.90,000 yuan to achieve a loss; (3) Robot business achieved revenue of 256.80,000 yuan, 5.0%, in addition to the downward impact of the automotive industry, the company’s active adjustment of the management structure also caused a certain impact on the company’s short-term sales, and the gross profit margin extended by 8%.4 up to 22.9%, which is close to KUKA’s normal gross profit margin, mainly due to the reduction in amortization effects.Overall, the growth of air conditioners is relatively good, refrigerators and washing machines are stable, and small appliances and Chinese kitchen appliances are affected by destocking, and KUKA sales have fallen short of expectations. Higher gross profit margin and higher expenses: Overall, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 28.1%, an increase of 2 per year.The 7 batches mainly benefited from product upgrades and reduced KUKA amortization.Settlement of sales expenses11.9%, increasing by 0 every year.8 total, management + R & D expenses 6.9%, increasing by 0 every year.The eight single ones were mainly due to the additional increase of equity incentive amortization and R & D expenses; the company’s financial expenses were -0.7%, a single decrease previously, mainly due to exchange gains.Overall, the company’s period expenses were 18.0%, increasing by 0 every year.5 units. There is still room for improvement in the gross profit margin in 2019, and the brand’s strategic layout is clearer: (1) The prices of the company’s main raw materials, copper, steel, plastic, etc. have now fallen, and if this trend continues, we expect the company’s gross profit margin to increase in 2019.There is room for further improvement and it will continue to drive growth in net profit.(2) The company released the high-end brand COLMO in the early stage, exchanged shares to absorb Little Swan, and released the younger new brand Hualing, thereby making the company’s brand strategic layout more clear, which will be more conducive to the company to meet the needs of various 杭州桑拿网 levels of segmentation, and further improvemarket share.(3) In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission has recently released a draft of solicitation for the promotion of consumption of automobiles and home appliances. It intends to compensate 13% of the total price (not exceeding 800 yuan) for replacing secondary energy efficiency or higher.The sales performance of home appliances must be a driving force.(4) KUKA’s short-term performance is insufficient and unexpected, but taking into account the company’s hierarchical adjustment of KUKA’s management structure and the expansion of domestic industrial robots, medical, and warehouse automation in the Chinese market, and the domestic production target of 100,000 units in 2024We are optimistic about the long-term development of the company’s robotics business. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: In the short term, the company will inevitably encounter the impact of the overall large-scale change in the industry, but the advantages of the company’s merger leader are expected to achieve relatively stable growth. If the national policy to promote household appliance consumption is implemented, the growth rate is expectedWill improve.In the medium and long term, the company’s integration of Toshiba, Clivet, Little Swan, etc., will enhance the company’s technological strength and global influence, which is beneficial to the company’s long-term development. The integration of the KUKA Group will become a company that directlyNew growth points for improving efficiency and growth. In addition, the company’s multi-scale, normalized distribution incentives will also help the company’s performance to grow steadily.We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 22 billion yuan (YOY + 8) in 2019 and 2020.9%), 24.9 billion yuan (+12 compared to the same period last year).9%), the EPS is 3 respectively.4 yuan, 3.8 yuan, P / E is 16X, 14X, the current estimate is relatively reasonable, we continue to give “buy” investment advice. Increased risk: sharp increase in demand; rising raw material prices; exchange rate fluctuations